Bitcoin Halving: Analysts Debunk Volatility Surge Predictions as Implied Volatility Rises

Bitcoin's upcoming reward halving, slated for April 20, is anticipated to have minimal impact on volatility, according to analysis from Greg Magadini of Amberdata. Despite a rise in implied volatility (IV) ahead of the event, Magadini argues against bullish bets on volatility, citing the highly predictable nature of the halving outcome. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have spurred significant rallies in the 12-18 months following the event. Magadini also highlights previous major crypto events like Ethereum's upgrades and BTC listings, which ultimately had limited market impact, disappointing traders expecting increased volatility. Notably, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has climbed to 75%, while the volatility risk premium (VRP) has exceeded 10%, suggesting an overpricing of the event in options markets. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at around $71,800, reflecting a 3.5% gain on the day and an 11% increase since early April.